The Citadel

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	281.0
Current RPI:	281
Expected SOS:	198
Current SOS:	198
Current Record:	8-21
Expected Record:	8-21
Current Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-10
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	265
Expected OOC SOS:	166

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-21	281.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for The Citadel.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	A	132-93	L	0%
11-15	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	A	92-73	L	0%
11-18	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	77-79	W	100%
11-24	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	A	113-78	L	0%
12-1	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	91-100	L	0%
12-2	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	72-98	L	0%
12-5	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	84-82	W	100%
12-14	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	87-77	L	0%
12-19	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	94-65	L	0%
12-30	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	79-81	L	0%
1-4	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	107-67	L	0%
1-6	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	109-92	L	0%
1-11	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	91-107	L	0%
1-13	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	110-101	W	100%
1-18	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	72-58	L	0%
1-20	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	88-81	L	0%
1-27	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	74-76	W	100%
1-29	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	71-73	L	0%
2-1	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	80-78	W	100%
2-3	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	100-92	W	100%
2-8	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	85-82	L	0%
2-10	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	116-103	L	0%
2-15	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	66-82	L	0%
2-17	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	71-75	L	0%
2-20	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	82-84	W	100%
2-23	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	70-83	L	0%
2-25	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	92-75	L	0%
3-2	VMI (313.0)	SC	N	78-70	W	100%
3-3	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	N	72-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

The Citadel's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

The Citadel's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against The Citadel.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
The Citadel	SC	26.57	26.57	28.15	28.15	-11.61	-11.61
UNC Greensboro	SC	6.26	6.26	75.00	75.00	3.13	3.13
VMI	SC	6.13	6.13	20.00	20.00	-3.68	-3.68
East Tennessee St.	SC	4.68	4.68	73.33	73.33	2.18	2.18
Wofford	SC	4.65	4.65	60.71	60.71	1.00	1.00
Chattanooga	SC	4.59	4.59	24.14	24.14	-2.37	-2.37
Furman	SC	4.59	4.59	68.97	68.97	1.74	1.74
Western Carolina	SC	4.56	4.56	32.14	32.14	-1.63	-1.63
Mercer	SC	4.53	4.53	53.57	53.57	0.32	0.32
Samford	SC	4.53	4.53	21.43	21.43	-2.59	-2.59
High Point	BSth	1.90	1.90	42.31	42.31	-0.29	-0.29
Campbell	BSth	1.79	1.79	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.78	1.78	64.52	64.52	0.52	0.52
Florida St.	ACC	1.75	1.75	63.33	63.33	0.47	0.47
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.75	1.75	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
James Madison	CAA	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
Marist	MAAC	1.72	1.72	16.67	16.67	-1.15	-1.15
Ohio St.	B10	1.72	1.72	74.19	74.19	0.83	0.83
UMBC	AE	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.38	0.38	61.29	61.29	0.09	0.09
Presbyterian	BSth	0.36	0.36	27.59	27.59	-0.16	-0.16
Longwood	BSth	0.33	0.33	13.33	13.33	-0.24	-0.24
Radford	BSth	0.33	0.33	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
Liberty	BSth	0.30	0.30	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.25	0.25	71.88	71.88	0.11	0.11
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.25	0.25	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.23	0.23	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.23	0.23	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina	ACC	0.20	0.20	71.43	71.43	0.08	0.08
Elon	CAA	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.18	0.18	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.17	93.94	93.94	0.15	0.15
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.16	0.16	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	6.67	6.67	-0.14	-0.14
College of Charleston	CAA	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Tennessee	SEC	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Louisville	ACC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Memphis	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00